By Rao Tummala Ph.D.
Moore’s law has been the driving engine for science, technology, manufacturing, hardware, software, systems and applications, contributing to the prosperity of thousands of individuals, 100s corporations and dozens of countries. As Moore’s Law begins to come to an end, for not only fundamental reasons but also for computing performance , power, cost and investments., it is becoming clear that a different path for electronics systems must emerge. So, while transistor integration on individual 2D ICs was the basis of Moore’s Law for ICs, transistor integration can be extended in 2.5D and 3D by means of interconnections or I/Os s in the short term. This is referred to as Moore’s Law for Packaging. Just like Moore’s Law has both doubling of transistors and simultaneous cost reduction from node to node every 18-24 months, Moore’s Law for system interconnections can do the same. Interconnections have been driven by computing systems and within computing systems, between logic and memory .
The new era of artificial intelligence mimicking human brain with several orders better computer performance is yet another reason for the end of Moore’s Law . Human brain is the ultimate systems packaging for highest performance in smallest size with lowest power. Human brain is the new packaging density and efficiency standard that may have to be viewed as more than current 3D architectures. A typical human brain has about 90 billion nerve cells interconnected by trillions of synapses providing trillions of pathways for brain to process info. Moore’s Law for Packaging , therefore must duplicate this architecture.The packaging or I/Os has historically evolved from DIPs in 1970s with 16 I’Os, QFP in 1980s with 64 I/Os, ceramic packages in 1990s with more than 500to 12000 I/Os, laminate packages in excess of 1000 to 20,000 and silicon packages approaching 200,000.Artificial intelligence mimicking human brain may need several orders of magnitude.
Currently, the best Moore’s Law for packaging is with wafer-based silicon packaging . But silicon- based packaging has many limitations at material, device, circuitry and system levels. The talk describes a roadmap from Moore’s Law for ICs to Moore’s law for electronic and photonic interconnections and eventually to quantum computing