Accendo – Reliability analysis … now what? (Part 3 — what is MCMC anyway?)

October 27, 2020 @ 8:00 am – 9:00 am

By Chris Jackson

This is the third in our webinar series ‘Reliability Analysis … now what?’ The first webinar showed what it actually means to turn reliability data into something that a decision maker can use. Not a chart. Not a graph. Not a ‘p’ value. Not anything else that you find in a textbook but isn’t useful. Last month’s webinar talked about how the best way to do this is to use computers … but in an easy way! And we talked about how we create a ‘posse’ of possible ‘ways’ we can explain the data we see. And this webinar is about how we use this thing called Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation (MCMC) to create this ‘posse.’ And the ‘posse’ isn’t random … it is based on the ‘likelihood’ of each on being the correct one. Which is how MCMC works.

You can’t really do this stuff without knowing the basics. So in this webinar, we show you the underlying mechanics of MCMC. And again – relax! We aren’t using equations – just pictures!

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