Accendo – Reliability analysis … now what? (Part 2 — what does MCMC stand for?)

September 22, 2020 @ 8:00 am – 9:00 am

By Chris Jackson

Last month’s webinar was ‘Reliability Analysis … now what?’ And we showed how to slightly ‘tweak’ all those textbook reliability analyses into USEFUL ACTIVITIES. What good is a 90 % confidence bound on reliability? What does this mean for profit? Or fleet size? Or mission success? We solved this problem using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation (MCMC). Please don’t be put off by this title! It is much simpler than it sounds! And we showed how to (simply!) use MCMC to change our reliability analyses into useful activities. We were able to show the effect reliability had on profit. Which makes it useful to a decision-maker.

So in this webinar, we will show you how to do MCMC yourself. This means that you provide useful information to your decision-maker. Which also means YOU become more valuable!

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